Can we really stop climate change?

By JOHN BROCK - 11/7/2009


I was attracted to the recent Tulsa World Readers Forum article, "Geoengineering: Is it the solution?" by University of Tulsa law professor Rex Zedalis because I've been practicing geoengineering for 56 years. The article recapped geoengineering ideas of how to reduce energy from the sun (and thereby reduce global warming) by various schemes of shielding the Earth by using mirrors or clouds of small particles in outer space, etc.

His intuitive conclusion was correct: Don't do it! Professor Zedalis has lived long enough to suspect an unworkable idea when he sees it.

It would be wonderful if all laymen were not influenced by the current mania. In this case, you can do simple calculations within the capabilities of a high school physics student to understand that the implementation of such schemes would require the entire wealth of the planet even if you are in error by a factor of 10.

In addition, the schemes would be temporary since everything we place in orbit eventually returns to Earth and most damning, even if it were possible, the unintended consequences could be horrendous.

Is there global warming? Yes

The thing that sets me off about the article was it started with, "There is no credible dispute about the fact that the Earth's mean temperature has been rising over the past decades."

I thought, "here we go again with 'humans are responsible' because of our industrial activity and carbon dioxide emissions." His opening statement is unnecessary because a few "past decades" is less than a blink of an eye in the scope of climate change.

Anyone who has sat through the first course in geology knows that our climate has been in constant change for at least one million years and very likely throughout the five billion year history of the Earth. During the last 200,000 years alone there have been four ice ages. This would imply that the ice age cycle is about 50,000 years. The beginning of the current global warming era started at the apex of the last ice age, some 13,000 years ago, which leads us to believe we are a little more that halfway through the Earth's current warming cycle (of 25,000 years).

We're not sure when the cycle will end. It could be tomorrow and it could be 12,000 years from now. Some 13,000 years ago, at the maximum extent of the ice in this ice age, there were some 2,000 feet of ice in northern Kansas. The ice has been mostly retreating ever since and sea levels have risen about 300 feet.

Sea levels may continue to rise, but cannot rise much more because most of the ice has already melted. Check it out yourself by examining your globe. The maximum extent of the ice was something like 38 degrees North and South Latitude. Today all that's left of the ice cap is Greenland and the Antarctic.

The current warming trend has not continued uninterrupted. There have been cooling and warming cycles within the overall warming trend. For example, the Earth was much warmer 1,000 years ago when the Vikings were colonizing Greenland, which at that time was really green. Those colonies lasted some 500 years before climate cooling known as the Little Ice Age literally killed off the Vikings. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, around 1750, global warming has resumed and the ice has again been retreating.

Geoscientists know that the reason for the cooling and warming has to do with cycles in the intensity of the sun. Current research is focused on whether cycles in sun spot activity are an indication of the variation in the sun's intensity and, therefore; an indication of the Earth's changing temperatures.

Sun spot activity has been very low during the last 10 years, during which time the Earth has been cooling, not warming. Ninety-eight percent of all energy comes from the sun. The other 2 percent is from the interior of the Earth, i.e. volcanism. By comparison, the trivial influence of all human activities is insignificant.

Can we do anything about climate change? Thank God, no! If we could there's no telling what horrendous unintended consequences might result.



John Brock is a geological engineer.


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Tulsa World Reader Comments
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billy8, Sand Springs (11/7/2009 8:51:36 AM)
There is not much we can do to stop the cycle of climate change. We can work on getting alternate fuels to take care of our needs to heat,cool and transport us, which will slow things down some so that we might last a little longer as the dominate species.

zzx375, BA (11/8/2009 8:08:48 AM)
But Proud Muslim, do we really want the TW blogs to become known as civil? Isn't just easier, when encountering viewpoints different from our own, to do a little name calling, labeling, and then a no so clever dismissal of those differing remarks? Providing support for one's claims can be a bucket load of work.

moogle, Tulsa (11/8/2009 8:39:21 PM)
With India, China, and most other developing countries going full bore on building their economies with coal as a primary source of energy, It's a sure bet that whatever token government carbon control doodad Europe and the USA come up with will be of little consequence, and will likely make unemployment worse for us. Then there is the recent study attributing about 50% of greenhouse gas to the methane from farm animals raised to satisfy meet eaters.

Proud Muslim, Tulsa: Coolest place in the world (almost) (11/7/2009 8:40:17 AM)
Whether humans are completely responsible, not responsible at all, or whether global warming even exists, there's only so much we can do. Let's start with alternative fuel. We need it regardless of the climate change debate.

Proud Muslim, Tulsa: Coolest place in the world (almost) (11/7/2009 9:15:52 AM)
Let's try to keep this conversation civil please.

Proud Muslim, Tulsa: Coolest place in the world (almost) (11/8/2009 9:36:14 AM)
; )

FS, Broken Arrow (11/8/2009 6:36:46 AM)
Whether John Brock works for an oil company (as one poster used trying to negate his facts) or a dry cleaner, the geological record shows the earth goes through these cycles on a regular basis. It shows the earth has done so for millions of years, and will continue to do so for a while longer, regardless of Al Gore's attempt to capitalize on peoples' ignorance or the left's continuing efforts to enlist the weak of mind who can't survive without a cause to believe in. To believe we have the ability to change nature within a human time span is the ultimate in arrogance on our part.

FS, Broken Arrow (11/8/2009 6:38:15 AM)
Corvetteguy, Tulsa (11/7/2009 8:14:06 PM) The very next time former Vice President Al Gore flys in on that large private jet,... talking about Global Warming,... I'm going to ask him about this article. ______________________ Word is that was attempted, but the Gore people shut the asker's microphone off.

longhorn sam, westex (11/11/2009 1:15:11 PM)
If global warming is indeed true, shouldn't our bodies (according to Darwin) be going through some evolution to prepare our bodies for whatever happens.

MomboCat, Harrah (11/8/2009 9:37:38 PM)
At the risk of setting Mr Brock off, Anyone who's sat through the first course in geology knows that there have been four ice ages over the last 450,000 years, not 200,000 years, as Mr Brock thinks. The CO2 concentration has (not coincidentally) cycled right along with those glaciations between 180ppm, around the peak glaciation, and 290ppm by the warmest points. The current CO2 concentration is about 390ppm. That's about 34% higher than it's been over the last four glaciations. All that additional increase also happens to have occurred within the last 150 years. Not coincidentally, that happens to be some time shortly after the invention of the steam engine. During those warm cycles, not all that ice on the poles and greenland melted (Ice cores from that remaining ice is one of the ways we know so much about those glaciations). At the rate we're going, all that ice may be gone by the end of this century. Also, during those past warm cycles, there were not billions of humans living within a few feet of sea level. Human civilization is, at the very outside, 30,000 years old. That's about the age of the Lascaux cave paintings. The clovis points are about 13,000 years old. Adam and Eve were put on this earth about 5,000 years ago. Stonehenge was probably erected about 4,400 years ago. The pyramids were first erected about 4,600 years ago. Humans first evolved in Africa about 250,000 years ago. In all that time, CO2 concentration has never been as high as it is right now. And it's still climbing. Mr Brock is implying that since the climate has changed in the past without man's input, that it's impossible for humans to cause climate change. He's implying that since the climate has changed in the past that it's no big deal. Mr Brock should tell that to the dinosaurs.

MomboCat, Harrah (11/14/2009 9:13:01 PM)
I really don't know what Mars has to do with anything, or evolution, for that matter. But anyone who's bringing up those subjects is probably desperately trying to confuse the discussion.

Rocketman, Tulsa (11/7/2009 1:50:10 PM)
Common sense article, thank you John Brock. With the wonderful weather we had this past week I got to spend a couple of days flying over 5 different states seeing the world from a few thousand feet to 8000 feet. It does not take you long to realize how insignificant humans are on this wonderful planet Earth.

fredsdad, Tulsa, OK (11/7/2009 9:13:26 AM)
Brilliant dissertation, Mr. Brock. Unfortunately it is the equivalent of Mr. Darwin addressing a snake-handling church in the mountains of West Virginia. The liberals are TRUE BELIEVERS who will look with utter contempt upon any biblical belief while swallowing hook, line, and sinker vastly more absurd assertions.

fredsdad, Tulsa, OK (11/7/2009 12:11:33 PM)
silver, Mars has warmed as well during this period. Would your immediate assumption be CO2 production from the Mars Rover?

Que, Terlton (11/7/2009 8:08:41 AM)
John Brock lists himself only as a geological engineer but his résumé shows that he spent his life working for oil companies. The American Society of Petroleum Geologist was the last of the major scientific organizations to recognize that global warming was caused by man’s activity. Geo-engineering is not a feasible way to stop climate change. We can do something about it just by reducing our dependence on fossil fuels. Mr. Brock’s hope is, thank God, that we do not have the political will to do anything about climate change. Mr. Brock’s last two paragraphs are filled with scientific inaccuracies. NASA’s data shows that 2005 was the hottest year on record and there is little evidence of an 11 year sunspot cycle. If the land ice in Greenland and Iceland melt, the sea levels will rise several feet. Never in geological history has trillions of tons of hydrocarbons been brought to the surface and burned.

Que, Terlton (11/7/2009 2:09:35 PM)
It's not the Sun causing global warming. A thorough study of the Sun's output by Mike Lockwood & Claus Fröhlich published in The Royal Society Proceedings A, July 2007 showed that for the last 20 years, the Sun's output has declined.

Corvetteguy, Tulsa (11/7/2009 8:14:06 PM)
The very next time former Vice President Al Gore flys in on that large private jet,... talking about Global Warming,... I'm going to ask him about this article.

Thunder196, Tulsa (11/7/2009 8:51:37 AM)
For some reason people are under the impression we can save all species, we can reverse natural changes. It won't happen. Saving a species of a beetle verses the sake of water for humans is an example over water fights last year.

Thunder196, Tulsa (11/7/2009 8:55:34 AM)
We can slow down the process, if we are doing things to contribute to accelerating climate change. We should be looking to the future. We can't stop mother nature.

thirdsister, Bartlesville (11/7/2009 7:11:10 AM)
Could you send this column to Al Gore, Congress and the President?

silverlakeshadow, (11/7/2009 10:59:39 AM)
Everything I've read (and that's over 10 books) on this subject holds there has been no significant increase in solar output during this current warming. Thus, Mr. Brock's argument is weakened and he needs to explain why there has been warming by other means. Also, I'm alarmed by his cavalier attitude towards the environment. Is this the proper demeanor to take at this time? I wonder about what the residents of Picher think of the geoengineers that told them not to worry.

silverlakeshadow, (11/9/2009 10:02:12 AM)
Gee, the last time I was in an airplane all I could see was the effects of human devlopment. Nobody has shown more output from the sun. CO2 on Mars due to other causes...

Polar Bear, (11/17/2009 10:47:13 AM)
BS...Deniers are refuted by Peter Sknclair's humerous U tube discussions,cartooning..All the Wworld's climatologists probably knew about climate cyclyes from 6th grade science classes.The Medieval Global Warming happened in Europe where temperature records were kept.Once other areas of the world were taken into account there was no Medieval Warming climate Change.Why no mention dangerous rising of of co2 levels??As the World Burns.....

gadfly, Broken Arrow (11/15/2009 11:42:25 AM)
gadfly, Broken Arrow (11/15/2009 10:54:22 AM) I hope that Oklahoma Senator Inhofe reads this article and that you call him to have him explain why this is not associated with global warming. That Oklahoman's continue to support this Oil Company poster boy is disgusting; and completely un-Christian (we are supposed to take care of our planet).

Unbelieving, (11/7/2009 12:07:16 PM)
I hate to admit it, but I'm with Proud Muslim on this one.


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