U.S. jobless rate makes jump over 10 percent

By JEANNINE AVERSA and CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER Associated Press - 11/7/2009


WASHINGTON — Just when it was beginning to look a little better, the economy relapsed Friday with a return to double-digit unemployment for only the second time since World War II and warnings that next year will be even worse than previously thought.

The jobless rate rocketed to 10.2 percent in October, the highest since early 1983, dealing a psychological blow to Americans as they prepare holiday shopping lists. It was another worse-than-expected report casting a shadow over the struggling recovery.

Oklahoma's jobless rate continues to fare better than the nation's and in September dipped to 6.7 percent from 6.8 percent in August, making it the fifth lowest rate in the nation. October rates for the state have not been released.

The Tulsa area's unemployment rate held steady in September at 7.0 percent, following revisions in data from the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission. Initially, the OESC had reported the metro rate to be 7.1 percent in August, but revisions placed that figure at 7.0 percent instead.

President Barack Obama called the nation's jobless rate "a sobering number that underscores the economic challenges that lie ahead." He signed a measure to extend unemployment benefits and to expand a tax credit for homebuyers.

Economists had not expected the 10 percent mark to come so quickly and immediately darkened their forecasts. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, and Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., predicted the rate will peak at 11 percent by mid-2010. They earlier had projected 10.5 percent.

Unemployment at 11 percent would be a post-World War II record. Only once since then has joblessness hit double digits in the United States — from September 1982 to July 1983, topping out at 10.8 percent.

"It's not a good report," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York-based investment firm Miller Tabak & Co. "What we're seeing is a validation of the idea that a jobless recovery is perfectly on track."

The Labor Department, using a survey of company payrolls, said the economy shed 190,000 jobs in October. A separate survey of households found 558,000 more people were unemployed last month than in September. Some 15.7 million Americans are out of work.

The survey of companies doesn't count the self-employed and undercounts employees of small businesses. So the economic picture could be even more dire.

Troubles for small businesses could have a disproportionate effect on the economy, because they account for about 60 percent of the nation's jobs. They tend to rely on credit cards and home equity lines — both of which banks have tightened — for cash flow.

And the unemployment rate doesn't include people without jobs who have stopped looking or those who have settled for part-time jobs. Counting those people, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest since at least 1994.

Economists had expected unemployment to rise to no more than 9.9 percent, up just a tick from September's 9.8 percent, and the surprising jump added to fears that the recovery could fizzle if Americans don't spend.

Already, consumer confidence for October came in well below what analysts were expecting. Shoppers' sentiments about the state of the economy are the gloomiest in nearly three decades.

The Tulsa World Business staff contributed to this story.


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Tulsa World Reader Comments
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Angry Citizen!, Bluejacket (11/7/2009 4:49:03 PM)
Everybody who has bet against the U.S. economy since the establishment of this nation has been a looser. This nation will turn the corner despite congressional meddling and the dreary forcasts from the far right.

tfromtulsa, Tulsa (11/7/2009 10:14:38 AM)
Gosh, I really hope these high unemployment numbers and the suffering of the unemployed (and the rest of us) doesn't stop Obama from having a nice holiday with his family, and maybe taking Michelle out for an exciting night on the town. Oh, wait, it won't.

tfromtulsa, Tulsa (11/7/2009 10:22:01 AM)
"Just when it was beginning to look a little better, the economy relapsed Friday with a return to double-digit unemployment for only the second time since World War II and warnings that next year will be even worse than previously thought." It's amazing how the geniuses who claim to have all the answers on how to fix our tanking economy are the ones who didn't see this coming.

tfromtulsa, Tulsa (11/7/2009 10:22:36 AM)
All bet all you libs who laughed at conservatives because they were preparing for the worst aren't laughing now.

tfromtulsa, Tulsa (11/7/2009 12:15:29 PM)
Few Clothes - lol! Those 4 years taught him everything he needs to know to be a mindless sheeple.

tfromtulsa, Tulsa (11/7/2009 12:22:34 PM)
fredsdad - There are no f-bombs in the post, so it must be Biden.

oldrustytulsa, Tulsa (11/7/2009 7:12:22 PM)
Thank you Mr. President, for being So up-front with all of the Americans, yes un-employment is kind of high, but we do all have hope, and the Change you promised is coming I can see it now.And take plenty of time deciding about sending troops to Afghanistan, this is to an important job to be taken lightly.Oh and by the way yeah, the troops at Ft.Hood were stupid to get killed that way.

Few Clothes, America (11/7/2009 7:57:10 AM)
He Lied!!!!!!!!!!

Few Clothes, America (11/7/2009 11:26:26 AM)
jmdumbdumb30. Spare us from the liberal manta that we decent folks have to hear daily. Drink you Kool Aid and bow to your savior B. Hussein.

Few Clothes, America (11/7/2009 11:33:14 AM)
Hey dumbdumb30. We OUR idiots? Selfish people TAT like to spend? YA YA Obama did that to the country To? You can't spell, write a complete sentence, and make little sense. It looks like the 4 years you spent in the 3rd grade didn't teach very much.

Few Clothes, America (11/7/2009 12:36:35 PM)
Tee, I gave him too much credit for spending only 4 years in the 3rd grade. It's always the same song, 3,000th verse.

my view, Sand Springs (11/7/2009 7:54:31 AM)
Obama to the Congress, give me my stimulus bill and unemployment won't go over eight percent.

FUTURE WORLD, Tulsa (11/7/2009 4:59:18 PM)
Angry Citizen, oh yea it's going to come back. And back in a big way. We all understand jobs are going to be the last indicator to rebound. And most understand many lost jobs will never come back. This is true with every recession. Businesses have taken this opportunity to shed jobs, to trim down, so they may return to profitability leaner and meaner than ever. It would be bad business, and neglect of a fiduciary responsibility for companies to rehire and create more jobs once this recession is over. If I were a major stockholder in a company It would upset me to no end to see a company rehiring, paying out out insurance packages, employment taxes, workers comp, 401k's by rehiring every employee who was laid off. This is an opportunity to get your company down to size to be prepared to compete more effectively in the world markets.

FUTURE WORLD, Tulsa (11/8/2009 1:13:49 AM)
And, everyone understands jobs and employment are the last to recover in a recession. Besides all other indicators are up. Everything else seems to be moving forward. Why would anyone expect companies to jump back in and rehire million s of people? Why would a company take back on the expensive benefits like health care and employment taxes, comp-time, 401k's and all that? Why. I understand a lot of the lost jobs will never return. As an investor in several companies I would be very upset if these corporations started rehiring willy nilly with my money. In my mind, from my prospective things are moving along just fine. When this is over America will be stronger. Businesses will be leaner and meaner to compete in a new economy.

FUTURE WORLD, Tulsa (11/8/2009 1:15:38 AM)
Personally I don't want to go back to the old ways. I like the prospect of what's to come a lot better and look to prosper from the changes that are taking place.

Mr. Brown, Kanagawa, Japan (11/8/2009 1:00:54 AM)
Wasn't it a week ago that Vice President Biden(that just doesn't sound right...) proclaimed that the stimulus was working as advertised? Where is he now? Probably in some mirror nursing some newly glued, taxpayer subsidized hair implants while millions go jobless. 2012 cannot come fast enough.

fredsdad, Tulsa, OK (11/7/2009 8:36:43 AM)
Employment is a "trailing" indicator. Unemployment rises only after the economy has turned sour, and decreases only after the economy has turned around. The recently announced "end of the recession" was misleading in the extreme, and the forecast of increasing unemployment proves it. The increase in GDP last quarter was all from government spending. Non-wartime government spending has never in history served to make a recession shorter or shallower. It has, in fact, in every case done the opposite. Government spending cannot create economic growth. If it could, purely socialist/communist economies would currently be flourishing rather than laying on the dust heaps of economic history. When President Obama took office, his advisors believed that unemployment was going to be north of 9% without further government intervention. They were right. With the stimulus bill, unemployment has reached 10% and will probably go north of 11% and stay there. If Obamacare passes, it will go north of 11.5%, and if both Obamacare and cap and tax pass, it will go north of 12%. As we continue down this path, the current economic woes of the city and state will get much, much worse as the recession and attendant collapse of sales tax revenues hit OK. And, of course, with less economic activity comes less revenue to the federal government which means more borrowing. Closely following will be the abandonment of the dollar as the official denomination for international trade and hyper-inflation at a level that will require re-definition of the term. Eat, drink, and be merry my friends. In a few short years, these will be "the good old days".

fredsdad, Tulsa, OK (11/7/2009 12:18:57 PM)
I suspect that "jmdunn30" is a pseudonym for one of President Obama's chief advisers. I can't tell from the content whether it is Rahm Emmanuel or Joe Biden.

mr.peabody, country side oklahoma (11/7/2009 4:25:43 PM)
Few Clothes- lmao- good one!

mr.peabody, country side oklahoma (11/8/2009 12:42:56 PM)
The real number of unemployed or underemployed is closer to 17 percent. Conventional wisdom is that jobs are a lagging indicator. Those that point to the stock market as a leading indicator should understand the simple reason for the growth in the market is tied to productivity. Compitition for jobs in recent reccesions equated 1 job for every 2 to 3 people looking for a job. that number is more like 6 to one in this reccesion. Simply put, companies are getting more productivity from less employees. There is no incentive to hire more people. Consumtion is down as a result and decreases demand, a vicious cycle. It is an absolutely absurd assertion that "just when things were beginning to look a little brighter", obviously a subjective viewpoint from an idealogical "journalist". The stock market in simple terms is based on future labors and emerging technologies to increase productivity. The rest is manipulation of buying and selling. The so called "green" technologies could be driving growth in the stock market.

Elusive, the burbs (11/8/2009 2:25:05 AM)
I can't keep laughing about the first line in the article "Just when it was beginning to look a little better, the economy relapsed Friday" Really it happened Friday? ha,ha,ha,ha,ha.

_The 3rd Man_, (11/7/2009 10:35:36 AM)
Time for a vacation.

jmdunn30, (11/7/2009 10:21:08 AM)
you guys our idiots. we all no obama got this mess handed to him but we need to bash him because he a democrat and black. lets call it what it really is the war in iraq that your great republican president bush bestowed on the US people. So lets see 8 years of bush had nothing to do with this right. We blame obama for not fixing whats been broke and coming for years from selfish people tat like to spend and not work. let me think what has help all the big companies go under oh ya the ones ran by the unions. I sorry i cant help my follow worker out because the union prohibits it and i get paid 30.00 hour to turn a screw on a car three times a day. ya ya obama did that to the country to.

OkieDad, (11/7/2009 6:11:47 AM)
Oh Wow...aren't you just loving all this Hope and Change Obama brought into Office? Well, I'm hoping all you who voted for this bozo are the ones in the 10%+ group who are looking for jobs! And the future doesn't look bright either. While the White House has cooked the economic books in recent months to try and show that the economy is turning around, the real numbers don't lie and the truth is we have a long way to go before we get our selves out of this. Well, that is unless Obama and the Democrats get their way and heap a load of Socialist styled programs like Socialized Health Care and more Corporate bailouts on us!

eternity, (11/7/2009 9:40:04 AM)
It amaizes me as to how often Obama uses the word "SOBERING" with every speech he gives anymore. The man goes out campaigning for his cronies that are not going to make it another term. So he'S NOTEABLE,to waisting valuable time that needs to be spent in taking time to put money where job can be madde. He's from a country of 3rd world living.He is right at puttting our country their. He wants what then will be the peons of his country kissing his nasty feet.


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